Illustration: Dylan Boelte/WIRED
Just a year ago, a bitcoin was worth $13. And today, the same piece
of digital currency is valued at more than $800 on popular online money
exchanges. But Chris Dixon believes that’s still a serious bargain.
Dixon, a partner with the big-name Silicon Valley venture capital
firm Andressen Horowitz, is adamant that bitcoin could become the
primary means of making payments on the internet, and if that happens,
the price of a bitcoin will skyrocket. “I think it could be easily worth
$100,000,” he says.
That may seem crazy, but Dixon is not alone. Many among the bitcoin
faithful believe that current bitcoin prices are on the low side
compared to what they will become. You see, there are only a limited
number of bitcoins — the worldwide software system that drives the
digital currency will stop minting money sometime in the next century,
when there are about 21 million in circulation — and this means that a
spike in popularity will likely drive a huge increase in price.
Chris Dixon. Photo: Andreessen Horowitz
Still
not convinced? Dixon points to what has happened with another scarce
but widely used internet resource. “Domain names are an analogy,” he
says. “It would have been absurd to say in 1993 that domain names were
worth $10 million each.” But now,
that’s a reality.
Sure, $10 million domains aren’t the norm. But according to Dixon,
the startups funded by Andressen-Horowitz typically pay a “couple of
hundred grand” for a domain name that includes a no-more-than-average
word. “Probably the best investment in computer history would have been
buying domain names in 1993,” he says. “Better than Amazon. Better than
Google.”
At the very least, Dixon is worth listening to. He not only knows the
bitcoin market as well as anyone, he is putting Andressen’s money where
his mouth is, leading a $25 million investment in
CoinBase, the first Silicon Valley bitcoin startup to receive such funding. Andressen-Horowitz has also made a seed investment in
Ripple, a marketplace where you can trade Bitcoin and many other currencies.
It’s the Politics, Stupid
Dixon joined the VC firm a year ago, after leaving a job at eBay, and
almost from day one, he was meeting with bitcoin companies. To Dixon,
bitcoin had a mix of elements that he’d seen before in other
technologies before they made it big, including the Linux open source
operating system or, well, the internet itself.
For one thing, he saw a technological breakthrough. Through a new
breed of distributed computing and cryptography technologies, the
bitcoin community created the first global public ledger that could
operate in a secure and trustworthy fashion. But more than that, bitcoin
had politics on its side: Libertarian-leaning advocates saw it as more
than a low-cost way to send money. For them, it’s a movement, and many
of them have worked tirelessly to evangelize bitcoin. “Every interesting
large scale technology movement has had a political component,” Dixon
says.
‘Every interesting large scale technology movement has had a political component.’
Even bitcoin’s well-known drawbacks auger a bright future, Dixon
says. It’s hard to buy bitcoins. It’s hard to spend them. If you lose
them, they’re gone forever. And the value of a bitcoin is subject to
huge swings, so it’s hard to really know what you’re signing up for when
you invest in them. All these issues echo the pattern that we’ve seen
with the personal computer, Linux, and the internet. “All of these
things were dismissed, and there was a sense in which this dismissal was
correct because at the time those technologies were not capable of
serving the most valuable customers. They weren’t good enough,” says
Dixon.
But critics “systematically underestimated” the power of these
technologies as platforms, he says. Platforms get developed. It can be
hard to see where the improvements are coming from, but they happen
nonetheless. “They get better at an exponential rate and all these
criticisms go away,” Dixon says. CoinBase, for example, is working to
make it easier to buy bitcoins, and it’s making it easier for
companies such as Overstock.com to accept them.
“I can’t imagine what they were saying about Linux 15 years ago.
Microsoft, I’m sure, had a million reasons why no serious person could
use it. Now there will be a billion Android phones shipped with Linux.
Every web server that matters in the world runs on Linux.”
Dixon admits that he doesn’t have the answers to all of bitcoin’s
problems. But he understands why so many geeks find bitcoin so
compelling: They see bitcoin as an new frontier for software
development. “I’m going to place my money on millions of smart
developers figuring these things out rather than the critics,” he says.
Saving the Web From Google and Apple
While Linux has kept the web open, there’s a growing problem, and
it’s one that Dixon thinks bitcoin could solve. How do you keep the web
viable on mobile devices? It’s easy to buy things through Apple or
Google’s app stores, but making a purchase using a mobile browser is
trickier.
“One reason the web’s in danger is there’s no payment system for the
web,” Dixon says. “I go to a mobile app; I can hit a button and pay 50
cents. I go to the web, and good luck.”
‘Among other things, Apple and Google take
30 percent, which makes it impossible for our companies to make money.
More importantly, I think, it just stifles innovation.’
But bitcoin, he believes, can provide an payment system on mobile
devices that’s not controlled by any one company. “From my perspective,
it’s a much better outcome for that to be an open system than to have
that controlled by Apple and Google,” he says. “Among other things,
Apple and Google take 30 percent, which makes it impossible for our
companies to make money. More importantly, I think, it just stifles
innovation.”
If you poke about in the internet standards written years ago by Tim
Berners-Lee and others, you can see that they intended to offer a
payment standard on the web. It never gets used, but there is a “
402 Payment Required” error that was designed to pop up whenever the web’s payment system was due to kick in.
“If you talk to Marc Andreessen, he’ll say there was always a plan
everyone had back then,” Dixon says, referring to his boss, the man who
created the Netscape web browser. “Nobody thought of a way to do it
right.”
That’s what Dixon hopes bitcoin will become — a way to do it right.
But, still, he admits that bitcoin is a highly speculative
investment. He says he owns less than one bitcoin himself. Andreessen
Horowitz is in the business of investing in software companies, he
explains, not currency speculation.
That said, he did buy a few bitcoins as Christmas presents for some
of his family members. “I think this is going to be big,” he told them.
“I don’t know, but if it is, I want you to have a little piece of it.”